Sea Freight Update
Capacity constraints, blank sailings, and carrier-driven adjustments continue to impact global shipping, creating challenges across key trade lanes.
In this update, we share what these developments mean for your shipments to Australia and New Zealand, along with forward-looking expectations and operational impacts following recent adverse weather conditions.
Our goal is to keep you informed so you can plan with confidence and minimise disruptions.
Northeast Asia to Oceania
- Seasonal peak hit in early November, especially from South China, with tight space and some cargo rollovers still occurring.
- Demand remains elevated but early signs of softening are emerging for the end of November sailings as vessel arrivals do not suit some importers who will close for Christmas.
- Promotional rates for these sailings are being offered for vessel arriving during the festive season.
- To prevent rate erosion carriers have decided to reduce capacity by introducing:
- Six blank sailings scheduled from China in December, tightening space availability and creating ripple effects across the region.
- Demand forecasts are now reporting high vessel load factors from mid-December.
- Premium service carriers, indicate space constraints for sailings departing after December 14, will persist due to blank sailings; pricing will be reassessed mid-December due to this.
- Many carriers have issued General Rate Increase (GRI) or Rate Restoration (RR) notices for the second half of December, signalling potential upward adjustments if demand rises and space remains constrained.
- Market outlook: Conditions are expected to remain tight through mid-December, with carriers managing capacity cautiously. Early bookings are recommended ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday in February 2026 and 3-week lead times from estimated vessel departure dates are essential to secure preferred sailings.
Southeast Asia to Oceania
- Demand steady; capacity generally sufficient but feeder reliability uneven following recent
weather disruptions. - Inland delays and feeder cancellations have led to longer cut-off windows for some shipments.
- Some congestion in Singapore however this is varied across carriers as to the extent of the delays.
- Rates remain mostly stable, with slight upward pressure expected as carriers adjust for equipment repositioning costs.
- Outlook: Service reliability should improve as regional ports normalize operations and recovery after weather disruptions.
Europe to Oceania
- Moderate demand continues, with long transit times due to transshipment via Asian hubs on the non-direct services.
- Port congestion in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean adds minor delays, though mainline services remain consistent.
- Rates stable however under pressure; carriers are using selective blank sailings and port omissions,
to prevent further declines. - Competitive pricing is expected to hold, though future reductions are unlikely as carriers aim
to protect margins. - Outlook: No major rate swings expected; focus remains on schedule stability and equipment turnaround. Quarter 1 2026 arrival planning should be planned sooner as longer transit times may continue.
USA to Oceania
- Softer volumes on both East and West Coasts, leading to stable or slightly reduced rate levels.
- West Coast vessel schedules largely reliable, with minor congestion around Los Angeles and Oakland.
- Rates competitive and likely to remain so through November; carriers balancing allocations to
optimise capacity. - Outlook: Stable trade lane with minimal volatility expected through Q4.
Trans-Tasman
- Capacity remains stable across direct and feeder services, though vessel arrival times vary
week-to-week. - Weather-related port delays and ongoing coastal schedule adjustments have created minor inconsistencies in service frequency.
- Rates stable with limited volatility; carriers maintaining steady base levels through year-end.
- Outlook: Reliability expected to improve into late November as vessel rotations normalise.
Looking Ahead to December and Beyond
As we move into December, blank sailings and carrier-controlled capacity strategies will continue to affect space availability and schedule reliability. To minimize risk, we strongly recommend planning with extended lead times of at least three weeks and monitoring carrier updates closely.
Additionally, please keep in mind that Chinese New Year will occur from February 15 to 23. This holiday period typically brings significant factory closures and reduced shipping capacity. To avoid delays and secure space, we encourage you to plan shipments early and confirm bookings well in advance.
Our team remains committed to supporting your supply chain during these challenging periods. We will continue to provide timely updates as conditions evolve and work closely with carriers to secure space wherever possible.
Please reach out to us for assistance with forecasting and booking strategies.
Landside Logistics
Terminal Charges Increasing from 1 January 2026
As highlighted in our previous update, Patrick, DP World, Flinders, and VICT have confirmed plans to increase terminal charges across all Australian ports effective 1 January 2026.
While the exact adjustments vary by operator, the industry can expect an average increase of around 10%
for Terminal Access and related port fees.
Electric Vehicles in Freight Transport
Recent discussions on energy transition have spotlighted the gradual rollout of electric trucks at ports and depots nationwide.
The transport sector is projected to become Australia’s largest emitter by 2030, making the adoption of cleaner technologies critical. This responsibility extends beyond transport operators to include importers, exporters, and the broader logistics community.
However, Australia faces unique challenges in deploying EV technology for heavy vehicles:
- Distance Limitations
Long-haul routes demand significant battery capacity. New models are emerging, including prime movers with a GCM of up to 50,000 kg and ranges of approximately 300 km. - Charging Infrastructure
While passenger EV charging stations are growing, heavy vehicle infrastructure remains limited.
Opportunities exist for operators and importers to invest in battery swap facilities, enabling quick turnaround and reduced downtime. - Vehicle Weight Constraints
Larger batteries add weight, reducing payload capacity. - Manufacturers are introducing heavy-duty EV trucks, and potential changes to local heavy mass laws could allow these vehicles to safely transport heavier containers.
Smaller electric trucks are already active in urban distribution, with more models entering the market regularly.
Although the transition for heavy prime movers is gradual, technological advancements and infrastructure development suggest widespread adoption is on the horizon. Importantly, this shift cannot rest solely on transport providers – industry-wide collaboration is essential to meet emissions targets.
A major trucking company has announced plans to manufacture zero-emission models in Brisbane from 2027, signalling strong confidence in this transition.
West Gate Tunnel – Key Updates
The new West Gate Tunnel in Melbourne is expected to open on 14 December (TBC), bringing significant cost implications for container transport:
- Transport costs projected to rise by 13%–30%, according to CTAA modeling.
- Additional tolls for servicing empty container parks on Melbourne’s western side – impacting approximately 60% of all empty container returns.
- New truck exclusion zones will redirect heavy vehicles to the M1 and north-south arterial routes.
Port Closures
On 25 November, major terminals closed during day shift for MUA AGM meetings.
Our transport teams worked tirelessly to minimise customer impact. We hope this is not indicative of further disruptions, as any additional delays would be highly challenging during peak season.
Macquarie’s $11.6 Billion Bid for Qube
Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) has submitted a proposal to acquire Qube Holdings in a deal valued
at approximately $11.6 billion, marking one of Australia’s largest logistics infrastructure transactions in
recent years.
Qube is Australia’s leading logistics provider, with operations spanning stevedoring, warehousing, road and rail freight, and a 50% stake in Patrick Terminals. Its rail division alone runs 150 services weekly across metropolitan and regional networks.
MAM, part of the Macquarie Group, manages investments in 180+ businesses across 33 countries, covering infrastructure, renewables, agriculture, and real estate. If successful, this acquisition would significantly expand Macquarie’s logistics footprint and surpass its 2017 purchase of Endeavour Energy as its largest domestic deal.
The proposal remains subject to due diligence and regulatory approvals, including FIRB and ACCC review, and aligns with Macquarie’s strategy of investing in supply-chain-critical assets globally.
Endorsements and Thanks
Reference 1:
“… I wanted to send you a quick note to thank the Harders team for our first 12 months working together.
With your help, we have successfully cleared more than 450 containers from 100 plus shipments, the largest ever import volume for FSA in a 12-month period. More than 40% of these containers were carrying DG classified product. To have not had any detention or clearance issues shows the experience, professionalism, and attention to detail of the Harders team.
The recent addition of the new unpack, destuff and storage warehouse in (Harders Contract Logistics – Horsley Park) has further improved the processing efficiency of containers though Sydney port. The (Harders Contract Logistics team) are doing a remarkable job in the new premises. They should be commended on their ability to handle a significant volume of DG classified product quickly and safely. (The) coordination of incoming containers to outbound road transport has taken Sydney from our slowest and most problematic processing to port location to now our fastest and easiest – a huge achievement!
Looking forward to our next 12 months working together as we move into our busy period again. Please extend our thanks to the wider Harders team with a special mention to the (Harders Contract Logistics – Horsley Park) team.
As I have mentioned, I would be more than happy to speak to anyone considering moving to Harders for freight forwarding or contract logistics.”
Mike, Logistics and Supply Coordinator (Customer)
Reference 2:
“I have nothing but good things to say about Harders (Contract Logistics).
The transition has been smooth, and they’ve been open, honest, and great to work with.
They’re collaborative, cooperative, flexible, and reliable — always taking our operation into account when making decisions.
Every request we’ve made has been handled efficiently and to a high standard.”
Daniel, Sydney DC Inventory & Systems Manager (Customer)