Global Sea Freight
Global Sea-Freight into Oceania has entered the final quarter of 2025 amid continued market volatility.
Weather related disruptions, capacity realignments, and carrier rate adjustments are shaping conditions across key trade lanes.
The following outlines current developments and forward expectations across all major trade lanes to Australia and New Zealand, including the ongoing operational impacts following Typhoon Ragasa.
Northeast Asia to Oceania
- China to Oceania trade lane has exceeded expectations, marking the strongest peak season in recent years.
- Blank sailings and extreme weather events have created a ripple effect, intensifying space constraints across the region.
- Demand remains exceptionally high, with most carriers reporting full vessels and limited space availability through early November.
- Carriers have moved forward with General Rate Increases (GRIs), also known as Rate Restorations (RR).
- Major carriers have issued industry-wide notices proposing an additional rate increase of USD 500 per TEU, effective November 15, 2025, following the previously announced USD 300 per TEU increase from November 1, 2025.
- Port delays persist, driven by adverse weather and ongoing congestion.
- Shanghai and Ningbo remain the most congested, with 77 vessels currently awaiting berth.
- Market outlook: Carriers are managing capacity cautiously and applying selective rate adjustments. Premium services remain firm due to strong bookings, while others may implement tactical changes to optimise vessel utilisation. Space for sailings through mid-November is nearly full, and although demand may ease slightly later in the month, overall conditions are expected to remain tight.
- Compared to 2024, the 2025 peak season has shown greater stability, with carriers demonstrating stronger discipline in both rate and capacity management. Barring any unforeseen global disruptions, current market levels are likely to represent the peak for this year. The China to Oceania Lane has surged beyond expectations, marking the strongest peak season seen in recent years.
Southeast Asia to Oceania
- Demand remains steady, with capacity generally sufficient but feeder reliability uneven following weather disruptions in the Philippines and Vietnam.
- Operations: Inland delays and feeder cancellations have led to longer cut-off windows for some shipments.
- Rates: Mostly stable, with slight upward pressure expected as carriers adjust for equipment repositioning costs.
- Outlook: Service reliability should improve later in October as regional ports resume normal operations.
Europe to Oceania
- Moderate demand, with long transit times continuing due to transhipment via Asian hubs as pricing continues to dictate carrier selection.
- Operations: Port congestion in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean is adding minor delays; however, mainline services remain relatively consistent.
- Rates: Stable to slightly lower, with carriers prioritising high-yield cargo and limiting low-margin spot movements.
- Outlook: No major rate swings expected; focus remains on schedule stability and equipment turnaround.
USA to Oceania
- Market: Softer volumes on both the East and West Coasts, leading to stable or slightly reduced rate levels.
- Operations: West Coast vessel schedules are largely reliable, with minor congestion around Los Angeles and Oakland following end-of-quarter surges.
- Rates: Competitive and likely to remain so through October; carriers continue to balance allocations to optimise capacity.
- Outlook: Stable trade lane with minimal volatility expected through Q4.
Trans-Tasman
Capacity remains stable across both direct and feeder services, though vessel arrival times vary from week-to-week.
- Operations: Weather-related port delays and ongoing coastal schedule adjustments have created minor inconsistencies in service frequency.
- Rates: Stable with limited volatility; carriers maintaining steady base levels through year-end.
- Outlook: Reliability expected to improve into late October as vessel rotations normalise.
Overall Outlook
Despite a global softening in freight demand, supply-side challenges persist. These include weather-related disruptions, inconsistent port performance, and equipment shortages, all of which continue to impact reliability across key trade lanes into Oceania.
Carriers are expected to uphold pricing discipline through November, supported by controlled capacity and targeted General Rate Increases (GRIs). Shippers are advised to plan with extended lead times of 3 weeks and closely monitor schedule updates.
As recovery efforts continue across Asia following Typhoon Ragasa, our thoughts are with the affected communities.
While these conditions have added complexity to global supply chains, we remain committed to working closely with carriers and partners to minimise disruption and ensure your cargo keeps moving.
Our team is actively managing the situation and will continue to provide clear, timely updates as conditions evolve.
Landside Logistics
West Gate Tunnel Toll Update – Impact on Heavy Vehicles
The new toll road in Melbourne will introduce tolls for Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs) and Long Heavy Commercial Vehicles (LHCVs).
- Current published tolls:
- HCVs: $19.78 (day) / $13.19 (night)
- LHCVs: $29.67 (day) / $19.78 (night)
Most carriers have not yet released suburb-based toll rates per container, but these charges will impact all container movements in and out of Melbourne ports.
Plan for cost adjustments and speak with your Harders Account Manager for tailored advice.
DP World Melbourne – FCL Stack Run Phase-Out
Effective 1 January 2026, DP World Melbourne will eliminate FCL Stack Runs, moving to individual slot bookings with no caps.
Benefits:
- Improved fair access and flexibility
- Enhanced transparency and truck turnaround times
- Reduced slot wastage and better planning efficiency
We are seeking feedback from transport operators and will share operational impact updates soon.
Patrick Brisbane – OptiBook Rollout
Patrick Brisbane AutoStrad is transitioning from vessel-based to container-based slot availability.
- Import slots will only be released once a container is fully discharged and marked “ready.”
- Truckers must monitor container readiness, not vessel schedules.
This change aims to reduce wasted bookings, improve slot utilisation, and provide clearer collection timelines.
DP World Brisbane – Ongoing Delays and Operational Impacts
DP World Brisbane continues to experience high terminal volumes, module outages, and intermittent maintenance, resulting in delays with container collections and deliveries. Recent disruptions have included entire modules being offline across multiple shifts and a full shutdown for IT system upgrades.
In addition, ongoing equipment maintenance, high yard congestion, and the introduction of a new dehire process have further reduced terminal efficiency. As a result, some of our service providers are experiencing longer turnaround times when collecting or delivering containers to DP World Brisbane.
We appreciate your patience and understanding as we navigate these third-party disruptions. Further updates will be shared as the situation develops.
Foreshore Road Heavy Vehicle Inspection Bay
Transport for NSW is building a new Heavy Vehicle Inspection Bay at Port Botany to improve safety and compliance.
Key details:
- Includes weighbridge, inspection lane, staff office, safety barriers, and upgraded lighting
- Speed limit reduced to 60 km/h for safe access
- Construction: 14 September – 30 October 2025
- Expect temporary traffic changes, lane closures, and night work
Important:
- For containers near weight limits, communicate with suppliers to avoid penalties or extra handling costs if units are pulled for being overweight.
- Stay compliant with Chain of Responsibility (CoR) obligations as importers and exporters.
Industry Insights
- Container Logistics Trends: Global container volumes remain steady, but port congestion risk is rising in Q4 due to seasonal demand and industrial actions in some regions.
- Fuel Cost Outlook: Wholesale fuel costs showed significant volatility recently with a sharp -8.9% drop in September followed by +6% in October. Forecasts indicate that diesel prices will moderate slightly in Q4 2025 and then maintain a stable range through Q1-Q2 2026 subject to global supply dynamics.
- Compliance Focus: Regulators are tightening enforcement on overweight containers and CoR breaches, with higher penalties expected in 2026.
Chain of Responsibility (CoR) Compliance Checklist
To stay compliant and avoid penalties:
- Confirm accurate container weights before dispatch
- Ensure proper load restraint for all cargo
- Verify driver fatigue management practices
- Maintain vehicle roadworthiness checks
- Keep clear documentation of all compliance steps
- Communicate responsibilities across your supply chain
For questions or support, please contact your Harders Key Account Manager.
Air Freight Update
October 2025 saw a volatile air cargo market. Strong export demand from Asia is keeping rates on major routes high, though some expect capacity to ease by year-end as passenger flights recover and new freighters arrive. Facing this uncertainty, e-commerce sellers are diversifying their logistics. Key strategies include stocking more inventory in overseas warehouses and utilizing multimodal transport like “sea-air” to effectively balance transit times and costs.
In air freight, the full recovery of belly-hold space and sustained investment in cargo aircraft have created a supply surplus, driving down prices on some routes. Despite this, strong demand for high-value, time-sensitive goods continues to support premium services with confirm uplift and firm pricing.
Looking ahead, excess capacity and price competition are expected to define the market in the coming months. Digitalization, sustainability, and supply chain collaboration are becoming critical for logistics providers. For e-commerce sellers, leveraging these dynamics through multimodal transport, optimized warehousing, and flexible supply chain strategies will be essential for managing costs and improving the customer experience.
The US Air forwarders Association (AfA) has expressed its disappointment at the continuing Federal Government shutdown, warning it could create backlogs and disrupt supply chains.
Whatever your cargo size, type, or deadline, we deliver the best rate and service combinations to meet your needs.
We have weekly consoles from USA, Europe, China, and South Africa into AU. Please contact our team of supply chain professionals who will continue to provide you with the most competitive options to support your supply chain needs.
Contract Logistics
Melbourne Heavy Vehicle Toll Increase
With the opening of the upgraded West Gate Tunnel and West Gate Freeway (M1) in December, container transport operators expect higher road transport costs due to the new heavy vehicle tolls on the M1 corridor west of Melbourne.