Sea Freight Update
The year closes with Oceania Sea Freight markets under pressure from soft demand and persistent operational challenges.
Carriers are countering these conditions with blank sailings and slow steaming to stabilise rates, while port delays in Sydney, Auckland, and key hubs continue to disrupt schedules.
Equipment tightness for certain container types adds complexity, and capacity adjustments are expected through January.
A short-lived rebound ahead of Chinese New Year is likely, but new vessel deployments and service realignments in Q1 could introduce fresh downward pressure on rates.
Against this backdrop, here’s a snapshot of performance and outlook across major trade lanes for December.
Northeast Asia
- December was highly volatile, with carriers finalising rates only by mid-month.
- Early December demand softened due to holiday arrivals, triggering sharp rate declines.
- Six blank sailings helped stabilise the market and improve booking performance.
- Premium pricing has normalised, signalling a return to rational market behaviour.
- Demand expected to rise ahead of Chinese New Year, with carriers planning a
USD 500 per TEU GRI on January 1. - New capacity injections, including MSC’s Kangaroo service, may pressure rates downward despite seasonal demand recovery.
Southeast Asia
- SEA trades remain stable with steady rates in recent months.
- Vessels are full through December, but utilisation pressure may emerge in early January.
- NAC rate discussions will begin in early February.
- PSS remains in place for December but could come under pressure from January.
- SEA volumes expected to stay strong through year-end.
- Q1 slowdown expected from January; Ramadan (mid-Feb) coincides with Chinese New Year, likely causing a sharp volume drop mid-Feb to mid-Mar.
- Songkran festival in April adds further seasonal softness, making Q1 traditionally the slowest period for SEA imports to AU/NZ.
Europe
- Asia–Europe trade lanes have maintained stable or rising rates for three consecutive weeks.
- Seasonal demand patterns continue to support strength, with early bookings ahead of Lunar New Year.
- Carriers expect slight rate increases into January, supported by capacity management and strong year-end volumes.
- Potential Red Sea/Suez Canal reopening in early 2026 could release capacity and strain European ports.
USA / Trans-Tasman
- Transpacific rates rebounded in December after sharp declines earlier in the month.
- Carriers announced blank sailings to manage capacity and stabilize pricing.
- On the larger trades of the Transpacific, Drewry’s World Container Index shows strong week-on-week gains, driven by Asia–US routes
- Trans-Tasman trade remains steady, with no major disruptions reported, though carriers continue tactical pricing strategies to maintain utilisation.
New Developments
- MSC will launch its EAGLE service (US–ANZ) in February 2026, adding direct capacity and improving connectivity.
- CMA CGM is revamping its PAD/KEA service, optimising rotations and schedules to strengthen Oceania coverage.
Looking Ahead to Quarter 1 2026
- Expect seasonal slowdown starting January across all trade lanes.
- Chinese New Year (February) and Ramadan (mid-Feb) will coincide, likely causing a significant dip in volumes mid-Feb to mid-Mar.
- Songkran festival in April adds further softness, making Q1 traditionally the weakest period for SEA imports.
- New capacity injections and service launches (e.g., MSC Kangaroo loop) may pressure rates downward despite temporary demand spikes.
- Tactical pricing strategies and capacity management will remain key as carriers navigate utilisation challenges.
The year ends with container shipping still marked by volatility which is being driven by strategic capacity moves and unpredictable market conditions rather than clear demand signals.
Early 2026 brings added uncertainty, with potential Red Sea/Suez Canal reopening, geopolitical developments, and new capacity injections likely to influence trade flows and pricing. Flexibility and forward planning will be key to navigating capacity shifts and market uncertainty in Quarter 1 2026.
We take this opportunity to thank you for partnering with us throughout 2025. Your trust and collaboration have been invaluable, and we look forward to supporting your business in the year ahead.