Harders Market Update — Middle East Conflict & Global Freight Disruptions

Harders is closely monitoring the rapidly escalating military conflict in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, Iran, and multiple Gulf states. The situation is evolving hour by hour and is now causing severe disruption across global aviation and maritime supply chains, with significant implications for importers and exporters.

This update consolidates the latest intelligence from leading carriers, terminals, authorities, and our own network partners.

1. Current Situation Overview

A combination of coordinated military strikes, retaliatory missile activity, and the closure of key air and sea corridors has generated unprecedented operational strain across the Middle East region.

Recent developments include:

Widespread airspace closures across the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, causing major flight disruptions
Confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial shipping following recent attacks, rendering safe passage impossible
Major carriers—including Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM—suspending bookings, halting Middle East transits, or sheltering vessels for crew safety
Hundreds of vessels trapped or idling in the Persian Gulf awaiting clearance or diversion

These developments are driving widespread congestion, schedule disruption, cost escalation, and network instability across global freight.

2. Force Majeure Conditions (Important)

Due to government mandated airspace closures, maritime security restrictions, port suspensions, and war related disruptions, carriers are invoking Force Majeure across multiple modes.

This means clients may experience, without prior notice:

Routing changes or emergency diversions
Transit delays or missed connections
Capacity reductions and booking suspensions
War risk, emergency, congestion, fuel, and insurance surcharges

Harders will continue to assess carrier actions and ensure full transparency of any additional charges as they arise.

3. Impact on Air Freight

Air freight capacity and routings across the region have been significantly constrained, with immediate effects for Australia/New Zealand-bound and Australia/New Zealand-origin cargo:

Key Impacts

Major Gulf hubs (Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait) are partially constrained or operating under security restrictions
Flight cancellations, emergency reroutes, and reduced lift capacity across most carriers
Extended transit times due to detouring around closed airspace
Backlogs and prioritisation of essential cargo at affected hubs

Harders’ Air Strategy

Alternate routings via secure airspace and partner carriers
Prioritisation systems for urgent cargo
Real time visibility and continuous transit monitoring
Proactive reallocation between air/sea/road modes where viable

Clients shipping via the Middle East (particularly ex Europe, ex Africa, and ex US East Coast lanes) should expect rate volatility and space pressure in the coming weeks.

4. Impact on Sea Freight

Strait of Hormuz & Red Sea

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continuing Red Sea instability have pushed carriers into costly and time intensive reroutes.

Major Carrier Actions

Maersk
- Suspension of reefer, dangerous goods, and special cargo into/out of UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan
- Suspension of bookings between the Indian Subcontinent and Upper Gulf markets
- Dangerous goods to/from Israel suspended
MSC
- Complete suspension of all Middle East bookings globally for safety reasons
CMA CGM & Hapag-Lloyd
- Vessel sheltering, rerouting via safe zones
- Application of war-risk and conflict surcharges
- Suspension of reefer & DG acceptance across multiple Middle East destinations

Operational Consequences

Longer transit times (1–4+ weeks) due to Cape of Good Hope diversions
Severe schedule reliability challenges and port congestion
Increased container shortages and equipment imbalances
Rising freight rates driven by fuel, insurance, and war risk premiums

Emergency Freight Increases (Maersk)

Effective 02–03 March 2026, Maersk has introduced the following surcharge increases:

USD 1,800 per 20’ Dry
USD 3,000 per 40’/45’
USD 3,800 per Reefer/Specials

Applicable to/from: UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman (Sohar)

5. Impact on Landside & Regional Logistics

GCC road freight corridors remain open but subject to enhanced screening and security controls
Border congestion and inland delays are increasing
Warehousing operations remain functional but may be impacted by labour shortages, documentation delays, or restricted access during escalations

6. Expected Impacts for Australian Importers & Exporters

Australian businesses should prepare for:

Supply Chain Disruptions

Delays across air and sea lanes, particularly for cargo transiting via the Gulf
Longer lead times on Europe–AU/NZ and US–AU/NZ trades relying on Middle East hubs
Congestion at transhipment ports such as Singapore, Colombo, and Port Klang due to diverted volumes

Higher Freight Costs

War risk and emergency surcharges
Elevated fuel & insurance premiums
Potential rate spikes due to global capacity scarcity

Reduced Reliability & Predictability

Frequent vessel omissions
Flight cancellations
Cargo prioritisation away from non essential loads

Harders recommends Australian clients add 4–6 weeks of additional lead time, particularly for critical inventory, as also supported by market assessments in your attached briefings.

7. Harders’ Mitigation Measures

To support our customers through this disruption, Harders is implementing:

Alternative routing strategies for both air and sea
Multi modal options (road air, sea air, or cross trade via secure corridors)
Continuous monitoring of carrier advisories and vessel positions
Priority handling of urgent and temperature critical cargo

Real time communication and shipment visibility tools

Our team is actively coordinating with carriers, terminals, insurers, and regulators to manage risk and ensure operational continuity wherever possible.

8. What You Should Do Now

We strongly recommend clients:

1. Review supply chain plans for Q1–Q2 2026

Identify SKUs vulnerable to delays and adjust inventory buffers.

2. Allow increased lead times on all Middle East connected trade lanes

Expect 2–6 week delays depending on the routing.

3. Budget for potential surcharges

War risk, congestion, emergency freight increases, and insurance adjustments may be unavoidable.

4. Engage with Harders early for urgent shipments

We can secure alternate capacity or prioritise bookings with partners.